Establishing the limits of predictability at Melbourne, Australia, using a knowledge-based forecasting system and NOAA’s long-range NWPmodel
نویسنده
چکیده
The WMO (World Meteorological Organization) weather research programme, THORPEX (The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment), ‘responds to the challenges associated with accelerating improvements in the skill of highimpact weather forecasts that (firstly) reduce and mitigate weather disasters and (secondly) increase the benefits provided by improved forecasts...(because) the term “high-impact weather forecasts” also emphasises (those) societal and economic benefits resulting from advances in meteorological science... THORPEX addresses the influence of sub-seasonal time-scales on high-impact forecasts out to two weeks, and thereby aspires to bridge the “middle ground” between medium-range weather forecasting and climate prediction...’ (Shapiro and Thorpe 2004). The work presented in the current paper, the primary motivation of which is to investigate whether or not there may now be scientific justification to prepare day-to-day forecasts out to two weeks, may be viewed as a small contribution towards the realisation of that aspiration. Aust. Met. Mag. 54 (2005) 203-211
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